{"version":"2026.03","released":"2026-03-29","occupation":{"title":"Bus or coach driver","slug":"bus-or-coach-driver","category":"transport","category_label":"Transport","pay":31000,"salary_low":25000,"salary_high":37000,"jobs":45300,"outlook":-1.08,"outlook_desc":"Softening · fixed population","education":"GCSEs grades 4-9 (A*-C)","exposure":3,"exposure_rationale":"While autonomous vehicle technology is advancing, the role requires significant physical presence for passenger assistance, luggage handling, and safety management in unpredictable urban environments. Regulatory hurdles and the high cost of UK infrastructure upgrades mean human drivers will remain essential for safety oversight and customer service for the foreseeable future.","url":"https://nationalcareers.service.gov.uk/job-profiles/bus-or-coach-driver","zone":"mixed","elasticity":3.5,"elasticity_mechanism":"While cheaper operations could increase route frequency, total demand is largely capped by the UK population's travel needs and the fixed physical capacity of the road network.","elasticity_gate":"population"},"trajectory":{"slug":"bus-or-coach-driver","title":"Bus or coach driver","category_label":"Transport","baseline_jobs":45300,"curve":[{"year":2024,"jobs":45390,"pct":0.2},{"year":2025,"jobs":45570,"pct":0.6},{"year":2026,"jobs":45878,"pct":1.28},{"year":2027,"jobs":46023,"pct":1.6},{"year":2028,"jobs":45789,"pct":1.08},{"year":2029,"jobs":45393,"pct":0.2},{"year":2030,"jobs":45123,"pct":-0.39},{"year":2031,"jobs":45004,"pct":-0.65},{"year":2032,"jobs":44946,"pct":-0.78},{"year":2033,"jobs":44900,"pct":-0.88},{"year":2034,"jobs":44855,"pct":-0.98},{"year":2035,"jobs":44811,"pct":-1.08}],"time_to_disruption":null,"transitions":[{"slug":"taxi-driver","title":"Taxi driver","elasticity":7.5,"exposure":3,"pay":27500,"outlook":7.12,"zone":"mixed"},{"slug":"helicopter-pilot","title":"Helicopter pilot","elasticity":7.5,"exposure":3,"pay":35000,"outlook":7.12,"zone":"mixed"},{"slug":"transport-planner","title":"Transport planner","elasticity":6.5,"exposure":7,"pay":39000,"outlook":5.78,"zone":"jevons"},{"slug":"heavy-vehicle-technician","title":"Heavy vehicle technician","elasticity":6,"exposure":2,"pay":40500,"outlook":5.9,"zone":"baumol"},{"slug":"ambulance-care-assistant","title":"Ambulance care assistant","elasticity":4.5,"exposure":2,"pay":25500,"outlook":3.05,"zone":"mixed"}],"regional":[{"region":"London","employment":16200,"pct":14.9},{"region":"South West","employment":11700,"pct":10.7},{"region":"West Midlands","employment":11500,"pct":10.6},{"region":"Scotland","employment":10800,"pct":9.9},{"region":"North West","employment":10600,"pct":9.7},{"region":"East","employment":10000,"pct":9.2},{"region":"Yorkshire and The Humber","employment":9400,"pct":8.6},{"region":"South East","employment":9100,"pct":8.4},{"region":"East Midlands","employment":8300,"pct":7.6},{"region":"Wales","employment":4600,"pct":4.2},{"region":"North East","employment":3800,"pct":3.5},{"region":"Northern Ireland","employment":2900,"pct":2.7}],"gender":{"male":76800,"female":13800,"female_pct":15.2},"soc_code":"8212"}}