{"version":"2026.03","released":"2026-03-29","occupation":{"title":"Carpenter","slug":"carpenter","category":"construction-and-trades","category_label":"Construction & Trades","pay":32000,"salary_low":24000,"salary_high":40000,"jobs":73800,"outlook":8.62,"outlook_desc":"Growing · uncapped demand","education":"Entry Level / GCSEs grades 1-3","exposure":1,"exposure_rationale":"Carpentry is a highly physical trade requiring manual dexterity, spatial reasoning, and real-time adaptation to unpredictable on-site environments. While AI may assist with administrative tasks or digital design (BIM), the core work of cutting, fitting, and installing timber remains insulated from automation due to the high cost and technical difficulty of deploying robotics in non-standardised construction settings.","url":"https://nationalcareers.service.gov.uk/job-profiles/carpenter","zone":"baumol","elasticity":6.5,"elasticity_mechanism":"Cheaper carpentry unlocks massive latent demand for home improvements, bespoke joinery, and timber-frame retrofitting that is currently priced out.","elasticity_gate":"none"},"trajectory":{"slug":"carpenter","title":"Carpenter","category_label":"Construction & Trades","baseline_jobs":73800,"curve":[{"year":2024,"jobs":73891,"pct":0.12},{"year":2025,"jobs":74696,"pct":1.21},{"year":2026,"jobs":75629,"pct":2.48},{"year":2027,"jobs":76398,"pct":3.52},{"year":2028,"jobs":76786,"pct":4.05},{"year":2029,"jobs":77009,"pct":4.35},{"year":2030,"jobs":77361,"pct":4.83},{"year":2031,"jobs":77864,"pct":5.51},{"year":2032,"jobs":78428,"pct":6.27},{"year":2033,"jobs":79005,"pct":7.05},{"year":2034,"jobs":79583,"pct":7.84},{"year":2035,"jobs":80162,"pct":8.62}],"time_to_disruption":null,"transitions":[{"slug":"solar-panel-installer","title":"Solar panel installer","elasticity":8.5,"exposure":1,"pay":36000,"outlook":12.12,"zone":"baumol"},{"slug":"kitchen-and-bathroom-designer","title":"Kitchen and bathroom designer","elasticity":7.5,"exposure":6,"pay":32000,"outlook":8.25,"zone":"jevons"},{"slug":"boat-builder","title":"Boat builder","elasticity":7.5,"exposure":2,"pay":33000,"outlook":8.75,"zone":"baumol"},{"slug":"heat-pump-engineer","title":"Heat pump engineer","elasticity":7.5,"exposure":2,"pay":35000,"outlook":8.75,"zone":"baumol"}],"regional":[{"region":"South East","employment":30900,"pct":16.9},{"region":"London","employment":22600,"pct":12.3},{"region":"South West","employment":21700,"pct":11.8},{"region":"East","employment":20600,"pct":11.2},{"region":"Scotland","employment":18200,"pct":9.9},{"region":"West Midlands","employment":13600,"pct":7.4},{"region":"Yorkshire and The Humber","employment":13300,"pct":7.3},{"region":"North West","employment":10000,"pct":5.5},{"region":"Northern Ireland","employment":9200,"pct":5},{"region":"Wales","employment":8300,"pct":4.5},{"region":"North East","employment":7700,"pct":4.2},{"region":"East Midlands","employment":7200,"pct":3.9}],"gender":{"male":146700,"female":0,"female_pct":0},"soc_code":"5316"}}