{"version":"2026.03","released":"2026-03-29","occupation":{"title":"Delivery van driver","slug":"delivery-van-driver","category":"delivery-and-storage","category_label":"Delivery & Storage","pay":23500,"salary_low":20000,"salary_high":27000,"jobs":254400,"outlook":5.08,"outlook_desc":"Growing · uncapped demand","education":"GCSEs grades 4-9 (A*-C)","exposure":3,"exposure_rationale":"While AI and autonomous vehicle technology are advancing, the core of this role involves physical labor, such as loading/unloading goods and navigating complex 'last-mile' delivery environments that require human presence. AI currently assists with route optimization and tracking, but full automation of the physical delivery process in the UK's varied urban landscapes remains a long-term challenge.","url":"https://nationalcareers.service.gov.uk/job-profiles/delivery-van-driver","zone":"mixed","elasticity":6.5,"elasticity_mechanism":"Lower delivery costs unlock a massive latent volume of small-ticket e-commerce and hyper-local logistics that are currently price-prohibitive.","elasticity_gate":"none"},"trajectory":{"slug":"delivery-van-driver","title":"Delivery van driver","category_label":"Delivery & Storage","baseline_jobs":254400,"curve":[{"year":2024,"jobs":255341,"pct":0.37},{"year":2025,"jobs":258860,"pct":1.75},{"year":2026,"jobs":263704,"pct":3.66},{"year":2027,"jobs":266854,"pct":4.9},{"year":2028,"jobs":266054,"pct":4.58},{"year":2029,"jobs":263559,"pct":3.6},{"year":2030,"jobs":262390,"pct":3.14},{"year":2031,"jobs":262788,"pct":3.3},{"year":2032,"jobs":263816,"pct":3.7},{"year":2033,"jobs":264975,"pct":4.16},{"year":2034,"jobs":266149,"pct":4.62},{"year":2035,"jobs":267324,"pct":5.08}],"time_to_disruption":null,"transitions":[],"regional":[{"region":"London","employment":34800,"pct":11.9},{"region":"North West","employment":34100,"pct":11.7},{"region":"South East","employment":33700,"pct":11.5},{"region":"East","employment":32500,"pct":11.1},{"region":"West Midlands","employment":30400,"pct":10.4},{"region":"South West","employment":27600,"pct":9.4},{"region":"East Midlands","employment":27200,"pct":9.3},{"region":"Yorkshire and The Humber","employment":23700,"pct":8.1},{"region":"Scotland","employment":22100,"pct":7.6},{"region":"Wales","employment":11300,"pct":3.9},{"region":"North East","employment":10500,"pct":3.6},{"region":"Northern Ireland","employment":4500,"pct":1.5}],"gender":{"male":232900,"female":21400,"female_pct":8.4},"soc_code":"8214"}}