{"version":"2026.03","released":"2026-03-29","occupation":{"title":"Nursery worker","slug":"nursery-worker","category":"teaching-and-education","category_label":"Teaching & Education","pay":20000,"salary_low":16000,"salary_high":24000,"jobs":69100,"outlook":3.05,"outlook_desc":"Stable · fixed population","education":"GCSEs grades 4-9 (A*-C)","exposure":2,"exposure_rationale":"The core responsibilities of a nursery worker involve physical care, emotional support, and the supervision of young children in a physical environment, which AI cannot replicate. While AI may assist with administrative tasks like recording development or planning activities, the requirement for human presence, empathy, and manual tasks like feeding and changing babies keeps exposure very low.","url":"https://nationalcareers.service.gov.uk/job-profiles/nursery-worker","zone":"mixed","elasticity":4.5,"elasticity_mechanism":"While cheaper costs could increase hours per child or improve staff-to-child ratios, the total output is fundamentally capped by the UK birth rate and child population.","elasticity_gate":"population"},"trajectory":{"slug":"nursery-worker","title":"Nursery worker","category_label":"Teaching & Education","baseline_jobs":69100,"curve":[{"year":2024,"jobs":69218,"pct":0.17},{"year":2025,"jobs":69703,"pct":0.87},{"year":2026,"jobs":70355,"pct":1.82},{"year":2027,"jobs":70794,"pct":2.45},{"year":2028,"jobs":70738,"pct":2.37},{"year":2029,"jobs":70470,"pct":1.98},{"year":2030,"jobs":70368,"pct":1.83},{"year":2031,"jobs":70462,"pct":1.97},{"year":2032,"jobs":70635,"pct":2.22},{"year":2033,"jobs":70824,"pct":2.5},{"year":2034,"jobs":71016,"pct":2.77},{"year":2035,"jobs":71208,"pct":3.05}],"time_to_disruption":null,"transitions":[{"slug":"audio-visual-technician","title":"Audio visual technician","elasticity":7.5,"exposure":4,"pay":28500,"outlook":5.5,"zone":"mixed"},{"slug":"training-officer","title":"Training officer","elasticity":7.5,"exposure":7,"pay":32000,"outlook":9.62,"zone":"jevons"},{"slug":"learning-mentor","title":"Learning mentor","elasticity":6.5,"exposure":4,"pay":20250,"outlook":3.3,"zone":"mixed"},{"slug":"teaching-assistant","title":"Teaching assistant","elasticity":6.5,"exposure":3,"pay":22500,"outlook":5.08,"zone":"mixed"},{"slug":"special-educational-needs-sen-teaching-assistant","title":"Special educational needs (SEN) teaching assistant","elasticity":6.5,"exposure":3,"pay":23000,"outlook":5.08,"zone":"mixed"}],"regional":[{"region":"South East","employment":16900,"pct":20.5},{"region":"Scotland","employment":13900,"pct":16.9},{"region":"East","employment":10700,"pct":13},{"region":"Yorkshire and The Humber","employment":8500,"pct":10.3},{"region":"London","employment":7800,"pct":9.5},{"region":"South West","employment":7700,"pct":9.4},{"region":"East Midlands","employment":5400,"pct":6.6},{"region":"West Midlands","employment":4900,"pct":6},{"region":"North West","employment":4300,"pct":5.2},{"region":"Wales","employment":2200,"pct":2.7},{"region":"North East","employment":0,"pct":0},{"region":"Northern Ireland","employment":0,"pct":0}],"gender":{"male":0,"female":66400,"female_pct":100},"soc_code":"3232"}}