{"version":"2026.03","released":"2026-03-29","occupation":{"title":"Painter and decorator","slug":"painter-and-decorator","category":"construction-and-trades","category_label":"Construction & Trades","pay":24500,"salary_low":17000,"salary_high":32000,"jobs":83600,"outlook":8.62,"outlook_desc":"Growing · uncapped demand","education":"Entry Level / GCSEs grades 1-3","exposure":1,"exposure_rationale":"This occupation is almost entirely physical and requires manual dexterity, presence in unpredictable environments, and working at height. While AI can assist with peripheral tasks like computerized color matching or business management, the core work of surface preparation and application cannot be automated by digital AI.","url":"https://nationalcareers.service.gov.uk/job-profiles/painter-and-decorator","zone":"baumol","elasticity":6.5,"elasticity_mechanism":"Lower costs would unlock massive latent demand for more frequent aesthetic refreshes and the completion of deferred maintenance on the UK's aging housing stock.","elasticity_gate":"none"},"trajectory":{"slug":"painter-and-decorator","title":"Painter and decorator","category_label":"Construction & Trades","baseline_jobs":83600,"curve":[{"year":2024,"jobs":83703,"pct":0.12},{"year":2025,"jobs":84615,"pct":1.21},{"year":2026,"jobs":85672,"pct":2.48},{"year":2027,"jobs":86543,"pct":3.52},{"year":2028,"jobs":86982,"pct":4.05},{"year":2029,"jobs":87235,"pct":4.35},{"year":2030,"jobs":87634,"pct":4.83},{"year":2031,"jobs":88204,"pct":5.51},{"year":2032,"jobs":88843,"pct":6.27},{"year":2033,"jobs":89496,"pct":7.05},{"year":2034,"jobs":90151,"pct":7.84},{"year":2035,"jobs":90806,"pct":8.62}],"time_to_disruption":null,"transitions":[{"slug":"solar-panel-installer","title":"Solar panel installer","elasticity":8.5,"exposure":1,"pay":36000,"outlook":12.12,"zone":"baumol"},{"slug":"kitchen-and-bathroom-designer","title":"Kitchen and bathroom designer","elasticity":7.5,"exposure":6,"pay":32000,"outlook":8.25,"zone":"jevons"},{"slug":"boat-builder","title":"Boat builder","elasticity":7.5,"exposure":2,"pay":33000,"outlook":8.75,"zone":"baumol"},{"slug":"heat-pump-engineer","title":"Heat pump engineer","elasticity":7.5,"exposure":2,"pay":35000,"outlook":8.75,"zone":"baumol"}],"regional":[{"region":"South East","employment":14500,"pct":14.7},{"region":"London","employment":14100,"pct":14.3},{"region":"East","employment":11400,"pct":11.6},{"region":"Scotland","employment":11000,"pct":11.2},{"region":"West Midlands","employment":9100,"pct":9.2},{"region":"East Midlands","employment":7900,"pct":8},{"region":"South West","employment":7800,"pct":7.9},{"region":"Yorkshire and The Humber","employment":7700,"pct":7.8},{"region":"North West","employment":6900,"pct":7},{"region":"North East","employment":4200,"pct":4.3},{"region":"Wales","employment":3800,"pct":3.9},{"region":"Northern Ireland","employment":0,"pct":0}],"gender":{"male":75900,"female":7700,"female_pct":9.2},"soc_code":"5323"}}