Hands-on, growing
Welder
38.9K UK workers · typical pay £35,000 · entry route GCSEs grades 4-9 (A*-C). Projected growth of +9% to 2035.
Facts · ONS + NCS
UK workers (2024)
38.9K
Median pay
£35.0K
Our scored call · a labelled hypothesis, not a measurement
AI exposure
1 / 10
Elasticity
6.5 / 10
2035 outlook
+9%
Exposure · 1/10
Why AI can do the work
Welding is a highly physical trade requiring manual dexterity and presence in unpredictable environments like construction sites and demolition zones. While industrial robotics exist for repetitive factory welding, the core tasks of a UK welder involve site-specific problem solving and physical labor that AI cannot replicate or automate.
Elasticity · 6.5/10
Whether demand expands when it gets cheaper
Cheaper welding unlocks a massive backlog of infrastructure repair and custom fabrication projects that are currently cost-prohibitive.
Trajectory to 2035
Headcount grows +9%, a Jevons-pattern curve.
Adoption scenario
×1.00 · Consensus
Change the scenario in the nav to reshape this curve.
Headcount projection · 2024 → 2035
Baseline 38.9K workers (2024) · % change vs baseline
Peak 2035 +9%2035 +9%
Peak headcount
2035
+9% vs 2024
2035 endpoint
+9%
42.3K workers
Time to −10%
–
Never crosses in model
Total wage pool
£1.4B
pay × jobs
Where this role lives
UK employment share by region, SOC-joined to 5213.
East
7.9K · 17.9%
West Midlands
7.2K · 16.3%
East Midlands
7.1K · 16.1%
Scotland
5.4K · 12.2%
Yorkshire and The Humber
4.8K · 10.9%
Northern Ireland
4.6K · 10.4%
Wales
3.7K · 8.4%
North East
3.5K · 7.9%
Gender split
Majority-male role (100.0% men).
0 women · 0%38.4K men · 100%
Career pivots · same category, higher elasticity
Five roles with transferable skills and better demand dynamics.
slug:
welder · dataset 2026.03 · CC-BY-4.0