Bus or coach driver

45.3K UK workers · typical pay £31,000 · entry route GCSEs grades 4-9 (A*-C). Projected headcount change: -1% to 2035.

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How AI is actually used here · measured · Anthropic Economic Index

30%

Augmentation

AI mostly does the task

6.2×

Time compression

~2h → ~20min

2.7/5

AI autonomy

how hands-off it runs

70%

Automation

of measured usage

How the collaboration splits · the six measured modes

directive 49.1%task iteration 23.6%feedback loop 18.9%learning 5.3%unclassified 3.2%validation 0%

What people make with AI here

data / spreadsheet24%advice / recommendation18%document / report13%

Real Claude.ai usage mapped to this occupation's SOC group, Apr+May 2026, CC-BY. Claude users only; task times model-estimated; augment/automate is how AI is used, not a count of jobs lost. Method →

Facts · ONS + NCS

UK workers (2024)

45.3K

Median pay

£31.0K

Our scored call · a labelled hypothesis, not a measurement

AI exposure

3 / 10

Elasticity

3.5 / 10

2035 outlook

-1%

Exposure · 3/10

Why AI can do the work

While autonomous vehicle technology is advancing, the role requires significant physical presence for passenger assistance, luggage handling, and safety management in unpredictable urban environments. Regulatory hurdles and the high cost of UK infrastructure upgrades mean human drivers will remain essential for safety oversight and customer service for the foreseeable future.

Elasticity · 3.5/10

Gated by population

Whether demand expands when it gets cheaper

While cheaper operations could increase route frequency, total demand is largely capped by the UK population's travel needs and the fixed physical capacity of the road network.

Trajectory to 2035