UK AI JobsExpected · in use · happened
UK AI Jobs/Administration/Medical secretary
Shrinks with AI

Medical secretary

55.6K UK workers · typical pay £26,500 · entry route GCSEs grades 4-9 (A*-C). Projected decline of -10% to 2035.

How AI is actually used here · measured · Anthropic Economic Index
37%
Augmentation
AI mostly does the task
7.8×
Time compression
~3.1h → ~24min
2.66/5
AI autonomy
how hands-off it runs
64%
Automation
of measured usage
How the collaboration splits · the six measured modes
directive 57.4%task iteration 32.3%feedback loop 5.1%learning 2.9%unclassified 1.6%validation 0.9%
What people make with AI here
document / report56%analysis / summary8%email / message8%

Real Claude.ai usage mapped to this occupation's SOC group, Apr+May 2026, CC-BY. Claude users only; task times model-estimated; augment/automate is how AI is used, not a count of jobs lost. Method →

Facts · ONS + NCS
UK workers (2024)
55.6K
Median pay
£26.5K
Our scored call · a labelled hypothesis, not a measurement
AI exposure
7 / 10
Elasticity
2.5 / 10
2035 outlook
-10%
Exposure · 7/10
Why AI can do the work

The core tasks of typing clinical reports, managing diaries, and updating patient records are highly susceptible to AI automation through medical transcription and scheduling algorithms. While the NHS's slower procurement cycles and the need for sensitive patient interaction provide some protection, the role's shift toward digital information processing makes it highly exposed to productivity-driven displacement.

Elasticity · 2.5/10
Gated by population
Whether demand expands when it gets cheaper

Output is strictly capped by the number of patient consultations and clinical procedures, which are determined by UK population health needs rather than administrative cost.

Trajectory to 2035

Headcount contracts -15%, an Anti-Jevons curve.

Adoption scenario
×1.00 · Consensus

Change the scenario in the nav to reshape this curve.

Headcount projection · 2024 → 2035
Baseline 55.6K workers (2024) · % change vs baseline
Peak 2026 +1%2035 -15%
-15%2024202620282030203220342035-17%+0%+7%-15%
Peak headcount
2026
+1% vs 2024
2035 endpoint
-15%
47.5K workers
Time to −10%
2033
First year ≤ −10%
Total wage pool
£1.5B
pay × jobs
Where this role lives

UK employment share by region, SOC-joined to 4211.

South East
10.8K · 16.9%
East
9.9K · 15.5%
North West
6.5K · 10.2%
East Midlands
5.5K · 8.6%
Scotland
5.5K · 8.6%
Yorkshire and The Humber
5.2K · 8.1%
West Midlands
5.1K · 8%
South West
4.6K · 7.2%
Gender split

Majority-female role (100.0% women). Sits inside the 69%-female Anti-Jevons zone.

51.5K women · 100%0 men · 0%
slug: medical-secretary · dataset 2026.03 · CC-BY-4.0