UK AI JobsExpected · in use · happened
Hands-on, growing

Carpenter

73.8K UK workers · typical pay £32,000 · entry route Entry Level / GCSEs grades 1-3. Projected growth of +9% to 2035.

How AI is actually used here · measured · Anthropic Economic Index
22%
Augmentation
AI mostly does the task
7×
Time compression
~2.7h → ~23min
3.17/5
AI autonomy
how hands-off it runs
78%
Automation
of measured usage
How the collaboration splits · the six measured modes
directive 70.4%task iteration 20.2%feedback loop 7.1%unclassified 1.1%learning 1%validation 0.3%
What people make with AI here
document / report67%email / message10%analysis / summary6%

Real Claude.ai usage mapped to this occupation's SOC group, Apr+May 2026, CC-BY. Claude users only; task times model-estimated; augment/automate is how AI is used, not a count of jobs lost. Method →

Facts · ONS + NCS
UK workers (2024)
73.8K
Median pay
£32.0K
Our scored call · a labelled hypothesis, not a measurement
AI exposure
1 / 10
Elasticity
6.5 / 10
2035 outlook
+9%
Exposure · 1/10
Why AI can do the work

Carpentry is a highly physical trade requiring manual dexterity, spatial reasoning, and real-time adaptation to unpredictable on-site environments. While AI may assist with administrative tasks or digital design (BIM), the core work of cutting, fitting, and installing timber remains insulated from automation due to the high cost and technical difficulty of deploying robotics in non-standardised construction settings.

Elasticity · 6.5/10
Whether demand expands when it gets cheaper

Cheaper carpentry unlocks massive latent demand for home improvements, bespoke joinery, and timber-frame retrofitting that is currently priced out.

Trajectory to 2035

Headcount grows +9%, a Jevons-pattern curve.

Adoption scenario
×1.00 · Consensus

Change the scenario in the nav to reshape this curve.

Headcount projection · 2024 → 2035
Baseline 73.8K workers (2024) · % change vs baseline
Peak 2035 +9%2035 +9%
Peak 20352024202620282030203220342035-7%+0%+10%+9%
Peak headcount
2035
+9% vs 2024
2035 endpoint
+9%
80.2K workers
Time to −10%
Never crosses in model
Total wage pool
£2.4B
pay × jobs
Where this role lives

UK employment share by region, SOC-joined to 5316.

South East
30.9K · 16.9%
London
22.6K · 12.3%
South West
21.7K · 11.8%
East
20.6K · 11.2%
Scotland
18.2K · 9.9%
West Midlands
13.6K · 7.4%
Yorkshire and The Humber
13.3K · 7.3%
North West
10.0K · 5.5%
Gender split

Majority-male role (100.0% men).

0 women · 0%146.7K men · 100%
slug: carpenter · dataset 2026.03 · CC-BY-4.0