All regions
Region · #6 of 12 for Jevons exposure
Scotland.
2.2M workers, 8.8% of the UK total. Weighted AI exposure 4.5/10, demand elasticity 5.31/10, projected 2035 outlook +3%. 48.5% female. SOC-joined from soc_regional × soc_gender × elasticity.json.
Jevons cohort
14.8%
323.6K workers · UK avg 15.3%
Anti-Jevons cohort
17.3%
#12 of 12 · UK avg 19.7%
Women at risk
161.8K
15.3% of regional female workforce in exp≥7 + elast≤4
Avg pay
£33,635
Workforce-weighted across 20+ roles
Exposure / Elasticity
4.5 / 5.31
Higher exposure × lower elasticity ⟹ at-risk
Zone composition
Where the Scotland workforce lives in the AI split.
Total 2.2M workers
Grows with AI
16.1% · 351.2K
Hands-on, growing
17.0% · 371.9K
Could go either way
9.3% · 203.2K
Mixed signals
35.5% · 776.0K
Shrinks with AI
17.3% · 377.6K
Barely exposed
4.8% · 105.4K
Top Jevons roles
Where AI is expanding total demand in this region.
Business project manager
23.1K workers · exp 7 · elast 7.5
+10%
Network manager
12.5K workers · exp 7 · elast 7.5
+10%
Sales representative
12.4K workers · exp 6 · elast 8.5
+12%
Charity fundraiser
8.4K workers · exp 6 · elast 8.5
+12%
Financial adviser
8.4K workers · exp 7 · elast 7.5
+10%
Investment analyst
8.4K workers · exp 8 · elast 7.5
+11%
Business development manager
8.0K workers · exp 6 · elast 8.5
+12%
Sales manager
8.0K workers · exp 6 · elast 7.5
+8%
Electronics engineer
7.5K workers · exp 7 · elast 8
+12%
App developer
6.9K workers · exp 9 · elast 8.5
+17%
Top Anti-Jevons roles
Where AI replaces labour at fixed total demand.
Admin assistant
41.2K workers · exp 9 · elast 2
-15%
Customer service assistant
38.5K workers · exp 7 · elast 2.5
-10%
Bank manager
25.4K workers · exp 7 · elast 3.5
-6%
Office manager
13.2K workers · exp 7 · elast 2.5
-10%
Data protection officer
12.4K workers · exp 8 · elast 3.5
-7%
Bookkeeper
11.7K workers · exp 9 · elast 3.5
-7%
Payroll administrator
11.7K workers · exp 9 · elast 2
-15%
Civil Service manager
10.9K workers · exp 7 · elast 3.5
-6%
Civil Service executive officer
8.0K workers · exp 7 · elast 2.5
-10%
Import-export clerk
7.4K workers · exp 8 · elast 3.5
-7%
Baumol winners
Low exposure, positive outlook: trades and physical services benefiting from AI-driven wage inflation.
Cleaner
52.7K workers · exp 1 · elast 7.5
+10%
Care worker
32.2K workers · exp 2 · elast 6.5
+7%
Palliative care assistant
32.2K workers · exp 2 · elast 6.5
+7%
Residential support worker
32.2K workers · exp 2 · elast 6.5
+7%
Chef
23.2K workers · exp 2 · elast 7.5
+9%
Delivery van driver
22.1K workers · exp 3 · elast 6.5
+5%
Waiter
20.4K workers · exp 2 · elast 4.5
+3%
Nursing associate
16.1K workers · exp 3 · elast 6.5
+5%
Nursery worker
13.9K workers · exp 2 · elast 4.5
+3%
Hairdresser
12.5K workers · exp 1 · elast 3.5
+3%
Largest occupations
The 20 roles that anchor Scotland's workforce.
| # | Role | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleaner Home Services | +10% |
| 2 | Admin assistant Administration | -15% |
| 3 | Customer service assistant Retail & Sales | -10% |
| 4 | Sales assistant Retail & Sales | -1% |
| 5 | Care worker Home Services | +7% |
| 6 | Palliative care assistant Social Care | +7% |
| 7 | Residential support worker Social Care | +7% |
| 8 | Retail manager Retail & Sales | -4% |
| 9 | Primary school teacher Teaching & Education | -2% |
| 10 | Warehouse worker Delivery & Storage | +1% |
| 11 | Bank manager Business & Finance | -6% |
| 12 | Chef Hospitality & Food | +9% |
| 13 | Business project manager Business & Finance | +10% |
| 14 | Police officer Emergency & Uniform | +3% |
| 15 | HGV driver Delivery & Storage | +1% |
| 16 | Delivery van driver Delivery & Storage | +5% |
| 17 | Higher education lecturer Teaching & Education | -2% |
| 18 | Waiter Hospitality & Food | +3% |
| 19 | Counter service assistant Hospitality & Food | -3% |
| 20 | Kitchen porter Hospitality & Food | +2% |
Gender × zone cross-section
161.8K women in Scotland work in AI-exposed, demand-capped roles.
That is 15.3% of the region's female workforce in roles where exposure ≥ 7 and elasticity ≤ 4, the Anti-Jevons threshold. The region is 48.5% female overall, but the admin / clerical / customer-service pipelines that dominate this zone are historically female-led, so the zone itself skews that way.