All regions
Region · #12 of 12 for Jevons exposure
Northern Ireland.
582.6K workers, 2.4% of the UK total. Weighted AI exposure 4.46/10, demand elasticity 4.79/10, projected 2035 outlook +1%. 51.3% female. SOC-joined from soc_regional × soc_gender × elasticity.json.
Jevons cohort
9.2%
53.9K workers · UK avg 15.3%
Anti-Jevons cohort
23.3%
#1 of 12 · UK avg 19.7%
Women at risk
70.0K
23.4% of regional female workforce in exp≥7 + elast≤4
Avg pay
£33,879
Workforce-weighted across 20+ roles
Exposure / Elasticity
4.46 / 4.79
Higher exposure × lower elasticity ⟹ at-risk
Zone composition
Where the Northern Ireland workforce lives in the AI split.
Total 582.6K workers
Grows with AI
9.4% · 55.0K
Hands-on, growing
17.4% · 101.3K
Could go either way
10.1% · 59.0K
Mixed signals
35.9% · 209.4K
Shrinks with AI
23.3% · 135.7K
Barely exposed
3.8% · 22.2K
Top Jevons roles
Where AI is expanding total demand in this region.
Network manager
7.2K workers · exp 7 · elast 7.5
+10%
Business project manager
6.1K workers · exp 7 · elast 7.5
+10%
Sales representative
5.1K workers · exp 6 · elast 8.5
+12%
App developer
2.3K workers · exp 9 · elast 8.5
+17%
Artificial intelligence (AI) engineer
2.3K workers · exp 9 · elast 9.5
+22%
Computer games developer
2.3K workers · exp 9 · elast 9
+20%
Software developer
2.3K workers · exp 9 · elast 9
+20%
Web developer
2.3K workers · exp 9 · elast 9
+20%
Financial adviser
2.3K workers · exp 7 · elast 7.5
+10%
Investment analyst
2.3K workers · exp 8 · elast 7.5
+11%
Top Anti-Jevons roles
Where AI replaces labour at fixed total demand.
Customer service assistant
20.1K workers · exp 7 · elast 2.5
-10%
Admin assistant
18.6K workers · exp 9 · elast 2
-15%
Bank manager
5.8K workers · exp 7 · elast 3.5
-6%
Local government officer
5.6K workers · exp 7 · elast 3.5
-6%
Local government revenues officer
5.6K workers · exp 7 · elast 2
-12%
Office manager
5.3K workers · exp 7 · elast 2.5
-10%
Civil Service executive officer
4.5K workers · exp 7 · elast 2.5
-10%
Civil Service administrative officer
4.2K workers · exp 8 · elast 2
-13%
Court administrative assistant
4.2K workers · exp 7 · elast 2
-12%
Data protection officer
3.8K workers · exp 8 · elast 3.5
-7%
Baumol winners
Low exposure, positive outlook: trades and physical services benefiting from AI-driven wage inflation.
Cleaner
10.2K workers · exp 1 · elast 7.5
+10%
Care worker
9.0K workers · exp 2 · elast 6.5
+7%
Palliative care assistant
9.0K workers · exp 2 · elast 6.5
+7%
Residential support worker
9.0K workers · exp 2 · elast 6.5
+7%
Waiter
7.0K workers · exp 2 · elast 4.5
+3%
Special educational needs (SEN) teaching assistant
5.8K workers · exp 3 · elast 6.5
+5%
Teaching assistant
5.8K workers · exp 3 · elast 6.5
+5%
Hairdresser
4.8K workers · exp 1 · elast 3.5
+3%
Welder
4.6K workers · exp 1 · elast 6.5
+9%
Carpenter
4.6K workers · exp 1 · elast 6.5
+9%
Largest occupations
The 20 roles that anchor Northern Ireland's workforce.
| # | Role | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Customer service assistant Retail & Sales | -10% |
| 2 | Sales assistant Retail & Sales | -1% |
| 3 | Admin assistant Administration | -15% |
| 4 | Farmer Animal Care | -1% |
| 5 | HGV driver Delivery & Storage | +1% |
| 6 | Primary school teacher Teaching & Education | -2% |
| 7 | Cleaner Home Services | +10% |
| 8 | Care worker Home Services | +7% |
| 9 | Palliative care assistant Social Care | +7% |
| 10 | Residential support worker Social Care | +7% |
| 11 | PE teacher Sports & Leisure | -3% |
| 12 | Secondary school teacher Teaching & Education | -3% |
| 13 | Network manager Computing & Digital | +10% |
| 14 | Waiter Hospitality & Food | +3% |
| 15 | Facilities manager Managerial | -4% |
| 16 | Counter service assistant Hospitality & Food | -3% |
| 17 | Kitchen porter Hospitality & Food | +2% |
| 18 | Warehouse worker Delivery & Storage | +1% |
| 19 | Business project manager Business & Finance | +10% |
| 20 | Receptionist Administration | -8% |
Gender × zone cross-section
70.0K women in Northern Ireland work in AI-exposed, demand-capped roles.
That is 23.4% of the region's female workforce in roles where exposure ≥ 7 and elasticity ≤ 4, the Anti-Jevons threshold. The region is 51.3% female overall, but the admin / clerical / customer-service pipelines that dominate this zone are historically female-led, so the zone itself skews that way.